A recent article in Smart Property Investor on the 24th October by Juliet Helmke pretty much sums up the current market conditions which I have taken some excerpts from;
Among all the market drivers that influence Australian property prices, one reigns supreme.
According to Dr Peng Yew Wong, a senior lecturer at RMIT’s School of Property, Construction and Project Management, the recent price increases recorded across the country tell a clear story that supply shortages have become such a strong market driver that they are outweighing other factors by an extreme proportion.
“Instead of the much-anticipated downturn caused by high cost of living and high mortgage repayments, house prices continue to perform strongly – consistently registering positive growth since the beginning of 2023. Australian house prices are expected to hit a new record high in the final quarter of 2023,” he said.
As someone who has been tracking market indicators for over a decade, Dr Wong remarked that there are a number of factors that regularly push Australian dwelling prices up and down.
Though there are a number of market factors continuing to put pressure on Australian property prices, all are being outweighed by the Goliath-like strength that supply shortages currently have over prices.
“This year, the key driver for the housing market is undoubtedly the shortage in housing supply,” Dr Wong stated.
“The National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC) estimated that household demand in Australia will grow from 10.7 million to around 12.6 million in 2033 and showed housing supply is already in a shortfall condition, with the supply to household formation balance to be a cumulative negative in the territory of a -106,300 balance over the next five years”.
Though he noted that there is no quick fix to this particular issue, he said that governments could hasten the creation of new homes by focusing on two main roadblocks: skills shortages and planning delays.
With efforts to clear up the roadblocks and rapidly increase supply still in their infancy, Dr Wong predicted that the shortage of supply would continue to have an outsized influence over prices for well over a year.
“House prices shall continue to go from strength to strength into 2024–25 in the midst of high inflationary pressure, due mainly to the housing supply shortage,” he said.
The good news for buyers currently in the market is that the end of the year always presents some great opportunities. The reason being is that buyers often put the cue in the rack and sellers become desperate to sell before the end of the year. This year we also have the added uncertainty of interest rates going up once more.
So if you have been looking to buy a new home or an investment don’t follow the pack and do nothing, only to come back in the new year along with everyone else at a time when the stock levels are at their lowest.
The next 12 months will be tough for buyers so if you can secure a great property before the end of the year, why wouldn’t you.
In this months newsletters we provide the normal economic insights for the month, our property management update and our tip of the month to stay focused on the long term.
Have a great month!
Insights
Source: Corelogic 2023
CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, notes the performance of the housing market in each city reflects the underlying supply dynamic.
“The three capitals recording the highest capital gain each have advertised supply levels that are around 40% below their previous five-year average. Advertised supply levels across Hobart, where values are still trending lower, have been holding at above average levels since June last year and were almost 40% above its five-year average.”
Since finding a trough in January, the national index has recovered by 6.6%, however home values remain 1.3% below record highs recorded in April last year.
Each month the CoreLogic Research team puts together a Housing Chart Pack, with all the latest stats, facts and figures on the residential property market, such as the combined value of residential real estate, sales volumes, and the trend in new listings.
- The combined value of residential real estate in Australia climbed to $10.1 trillion at the end of September, up from $10 trillion in the previous month.
- National home values rose 2.2% in the three months to September, down slightly from the 2.4% growth over the three months to August.
- The upgraded Home Value Index model shows national dwelling values increased 3.9% in the year to September. The annual change in home values moved into positive territory in August.
- The combined capital cities dwelling market value rose 0.9% in September, up from a 0.8% lift in August.
- CoreLogic estimates there were 39,216 sales in September nationally, slightly lower than the five-year average of 40,607 per month.
- Capital city sales totaled 24,996, which was -1.8% below the historic average. The combined regional market saw 14,220 sales in the month, trending -6.1% below the five-year average.
- The median amount of time it took to sell property in the September quarter was 30 days nationally, and has hovered around 30 days since the April rolling quarter. Regional Australia has seen a greater lift in time on market year-on-year, which corroborates other metrics of softer market performance in the regions in the past 12 months.
- At the median level, vendors are now offering less of a discount on their property. The median vendor discount nationally was -3.8% in the three months to September, up from a recent low of -4.3% at the end of last year.
- At the national level, there were 38,428 new listings observed over the four weeks to October 8, 2023. New listings are trending higher into the start of the spring selling season, and are just -3.0% lower than the historic five-year average.
- At the national level, there were 140,524 new listings observed over the four weeks to October 8, 2023. Total listings are still trending lower than the previous five-year average due to absorption from sales at a national level. However, total listings are rising in some markets.
- New listings are now trending higher than a year ago across five capital city markets. Total listings are accumulating in some markets, and remain higher than a year ago in Melbourne, Hobart, Canberra and some regional markets.
- The combined capital cities clearance eased slightly through the month, averaging 65.2% in the four weeks ending 8 October. This was down from an average of 66.1% in the four weeks to 3 September.
- Australian rent values increased 0.7% in September, taking the national annual increase to
8.4%. Annual growth in rent values remains elevated on the previous decade average, and accelerated slightly in September.
- Dwelling approvals jumped 7.0% in August, driven by a 8.8% lift in unit approvals and a 6.0% lift in detached house approvals. Overall, new dwelling approvals have been tracking around -21% below the decade average since the start of the year, with high interest rates, land values and construction costs contributing to subdued development application levels.
- The Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) is featured in the October ‘Chart of the Month’. The index rose 0.5% through the September 2023 quarter. The trend in the CCCI suggests growth in construction costs have now normalised.
Source: Core Logic
Property Management Update
It’s the end of October, only two months until Christmas – where has this year gone?
RENTAL MARKET UPDATE
We are finding renter demand is high! When properties are advertised online, we are still seeing many people attend the open home and continue to receive a number of applications which are all presented to our owners.
The great news for our rental providers is that our owners get to decide who the best applicant is for their property however the bad news for these applicants is that only 1 applicant is successful, for the others, the search continues.
Victoria has a dynamic rental market with a significant demand for rental properties. Factors like population growth, student influx (Melbourne is a major student city), and job opportunities influence this demand, yet there are not enough rental properties available.
The Melbourne rental market is still experiencing a challenging period due to a housing shortage. The high demand for housing, declining household sizes, rising costs for property owners, and low levels of development have all contributed to this crisis.
With September vacancy rates as low as 1.2% in Melbourne, it is easy to see why many of our renters are staying put with many of them signing further fixed term agreements.
WHAT IS PROPERTY MANAGEMENT?
Property management is the cornerstone of a successful and stress-free property investment journey. It is more than just collecting rent and actioning maintenance. It is about building strong relationships with all clients, be it, rental providers, renters, trades, owners corporation managers just to mention a few.
Whether you’re a rental provider seeking peace of mind or a renter looking for a comfortable place to call home, our dedicated property management team here at Buyers Advocate is here to service your needs, for an insight of our clients feedback, please have a look at our Google reviews.
Our team take pride in ensuring that properties are well-maintained, rent is on time, and renter & rental provider relationships are harmonious.
With a wealth of experience and local knowledge, our mission is to streamline the rental process for both the rental provider and renters alike, offering convenience, transparency, and reliability.
From thorough renter screenings to responsive maintenance and compliance with local regulations, our property management services are designed to provide a seamless experience for property owners and tenants alike. Stay connected with us for the latest updates on the Victoria property market, expert tips, and a commitment to making your rental experience a positive one.
TIP FOR RENTAL PROVIDERS
If your property has been open for inspection and applications have been presented to you, it is critical that you respond to your property manager same day with your instructions.
Many applicants are viewing several properties and applying for them all because they don’t want to miss out. Waiting even a day to respond to your property manager could see your chosen application accepting another property.
TIP FOR RENTERS
Summer is approaching. If you have a split system in your property, ensure that the filters are cleaned regularly. This is easy to do and will ensure that the unit operates as best as possible.
We pride ourselves on our honest open communication and the strong relationships we build with our rental providers and renters alike.
If you are unhappy with the level of service you are receiving from your current Property Manager, have a chat to Rachel or Liz. It may be time for a change. If you would like a confidential chat, please contact us (03) 9818 4499.
Tip Of The Month:
Stick to the fundamentals and play the long game!
I read with interest during the week about Propertyology boss Simon Pressley announcing his firm would no longer recommend any Victorian towns or suburbs to investors. Simon runs an investment advice business, which is based in Brisbane but provides advice nationwide.
He said his firm was not alone, and before he would consider recommending Victoria to investors again the state government would need to walk back “expressions of disdain” towards property investors by former Premier Daniel Andrews, as well as alter or revoke a “procession of poor policies targeted at property investors”.
In a diatribe aimed at the state government he outlined concerns from economic management to debt levels as well as property specific issues including increases to land tax next year, excessive stamp duty costs, Australia’s “most onerous rental legislation” and recently announced vacancy taxes for holiday homes as well as a short-stay accommodation levy.
Now while I agree there has been some ridiculous changes in compliance requirements and taxes that clearly discourage property investors, I am surprised by the comments not to invest in the state. Property is a long game and those that are good at it, understand the value of buying in areas that have high growth potential. Governments change as do policies and one thing that is not going away is the severe rental crisis we are experiencing which will place future pressure on governments to incentivise the private sector to provide accommodation.
Also with Labour governments in all states except for Tasmania, there is the very real possibility that there will be further changes to all state policies as far as taxes and compliance is concerned. So you could pay top dollar today to find a policy change impacts that market tomorrow.
So lets get back to the fundamentals and the big picture in property investing. If you want to chase trends, that is exactly what they are. Short term sugar hits that can quickly crash. Both Melbourne and Sydney have outperformed most markets throughout Australia over the past 100 years and this is unlikely to change. These are the two major cities in Australia and are recognised internationally as such and where most of the work opportunities exist. This is confirmed by Proptrack which noted Melbourne as being the top destination for the last quarter for overseas property seekers due to its strong commerce and study sector.
A great investor in Warren Buffet once said “buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying”. Many people followed the herd during covid into regional locations but are now caught with properties that are likely to underperform the inner city areas as people come back into the city.
It is also worth noting the simplicity in making generalisations around areas as there are sub markets everywhere. The key is to have the knowledge and expertise to recognise these markets and knowing how the demographic, infrastructure and economic changes are likely to impact prices going forward.
So my advice would be follow the long term fundamentals and invest in areas that have shown long term growth that is likely to continue into the future.
Buying in a market because of government policy is similar to buying a property because you like your neighbour. This can change quickly just like government policy. So invest for the long term.
