It appears that economists and researchers have finally caught up to what we have been predicting for the last 9 months that property prices are heading North. There is often a delay to what we are seeing on the ground and the predictions from so called experts. Earlier in the year the predictions were all doom and gloom with the so called mortgage cliff decimating the property market with widespread views that the market was going to drop. Wind forward to today and the same economists that made these predictions are now expecting the market to increase by 5% – 15%.
In fact, the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) is forecasting property prices to hit a new peak next year. They are predicting 7 per cent growth this year and a further 5 per cent for 2024. ANZ Research expects that housing prices will rise 5 to 6 per cent this year and 3 per cent in 2024. KPMG are even more bullish with prices to accelerate by 12 per cent in the year to June 2025. Melbourne is anticipated to outperform Sydney as supply in Melbourne is likely to be more constrained as seen by lower future dwelling completions.
The most significant factor driving property price growth is increased demand. Many people sat on their hands during covid and are now looking to buy their first home, upsize, downsize or invest. Many home buyers are choosing to buy first before they sell further exacerbating the problem.
At the same time, migrants are returning to Australia in record numbers. Migration is expected to add another 1.1 million people to Australia’s population in the next four years, on top of the 400,000 that arrived last financial year.
Demand by foreign investors is also starting to pick up again and tipped to keep rising. The Foreign Investment Review Board half-year figures of the 2022-23 financial year was at $4.3 billion, already more than half of the total investment achieved in the 2022 financial year.
On the supply side, housing shortage is expected to persist due to the pullback in construction activity.
If you’re a prospective buyer, this could mean you will be further priced out of the market. The homes you were previously able to afford would be further out of reach and you would need a bigger deposit to buy. So if you are in a position to buy, now is the time to act.
In this months newsletter we provide our usual monthly insights, property management update, a couple of recent purchases and a tip for the month on how to win the psychology battle at auction.
Enjoy the sunshine!
Insights
Source: Corelogic 2023
CoreLogic Research Director, Tim Lawless, noted the trend in housing values, although generally positive, is diverse.
“Sydney has led the recovery trend to-date with a gain of 8.8% since values found a floor in January this year. Brisbane has also posted a strong recovery with values up 6.2% since bottoming out in February.
“At the other end of the scale, some other capital cities are better described as flat, with Hobart home values unchanged since stabilising in April, while values across the ACT have risen only mildly, up 1.0% since a trough in April. These are also the only two capital cities where advertised supply is tracking higher than a year ago, suggesting a rebalancing between buyers and sellers is a key factor contributing to the stability of values in these regions.”
Market Overview
Source: – REIV September Monthly Bulletin
Following the Reserve Bank meeting in September 2023, the cash rate remained unchanged at 4.10 per cent.
There were 3,194 reported auctions in August 2023 with 2,406 of these sold representing a clearance rate of 75.3 per cent. There were a total of 31,961 reported auctions in Victoria in the past 12 months, with a 73.3 per cent clearance rate.
There were an estimated 13,527 house and unit sales transacted in Victoria in August 2023, and 125,738 sales in the past 12 months. Based on these estimates, the share of auctions sold as a percentage of overall sales was 17.4 per cent in the 12 months to August 2023.
The REIV Residential Market Index CRMX) for Victoria rose by 0.5 per cent to 151.4 over the four weeks to 17th September 2023. The House price index went down by 1.9 per cent to 159.3 over the same period and the Unit index saw an increase of 1.7 per cent to 139.5.
Victoria’s vacancy rate stayed at 2.2 per cent in August 2023. The median rent in metropolitan Melbourne for houses continued to rise to $550 per week, while it stayed at $500 per week for units for three consecutive months. The median rent for regional houses rose to $450 per week and it went down to $350 per week for units over the month.
Economy – REIV September Monthly Bulletin
Following the Reserve Bank meeting in September 2023, the cash rate remained unchanged at 4.10 per cent.
Inflation in Australia has passed its peak and the monthly CPI indicator for July showed a further decline. But inflation is still too high and will remain so for some time yet. The central forecast is for CPI inflation to continue to decline and to be back within the 2-3 per cent target range in late 2025.
The Australian economy is experiencing a period of below-trend growth and this is expected to continue for a while. High inflation is weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. Conditions in the labour market remain tight, the unemployment rate is expected to rise gradually to around 4½ per cent late next year.
According to the ABS, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Australia remained at 3.7 per cent in August, with employment increasing by around 64,900 people and the number of unemployed only dropping slightly, by around 2,600 people. The large increase in employment in August came after a small drop in July, around the school holiday period.
The participation rate in Victoria saw 0.3 percentage points decrease over the month to 67.5 per cent while the unemployment rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5 per cent.
Property Management Update
Spring has sprung (or has it?) The weather is rather confusing as too can be the recent ‘Victoria’s Housing Statement – The Decade Ahead 2024-2034’ which addressed some of the longer-term supply challenges Victoria is currently facing.
A positive to take from the statement is that Victoria will not be looking at applying rent control (limiting the amount of rent that Residential Rental Providers can charge) which we have seen recently in the media. However, the government are looking at putting some new legislation in place.
Below are some of the specific points covered in Victoria’s Housing Statement:
- Restricting rent increases between successive fixed-term rental agreements.
This only impacts renters on their first fixed agreement (not lease renewals) and if they are given a notice to vacate, the rent cannot be increased for the next lease for 12 months. On a positive note, Buyers Advocate Property Management have not had any circumstances where we have issued a notice to vacate for end of fixed term tenancy therefore this will not have a big impact on our portfolio.
- Ban all types of rental bidding.
While there have been instances where prospective renters have offered more to secure a property, removing this is only likely to alter the strategy going forward with some rental providers choosing to go to market at a higher rental amount when the property is first listed to see what the market would be prepared to pay.
- Establish Rental Dispute Resolution Victoria.
Until we see details on how this would work there is little, we can comment on at this stage but anything that frees up the backlog for VCAT disputes should be beneficial.
- Introduce a portable rental bond scheme.
Until we see details on how this would work, we cannot comment on at this stage.
- Extend notices of rent increase and notice to vacate periods from 60 days to 90 days.
This will mean a small change in our process, so we do not see this being an issue if changed.
Please be aware that no dates have been confirmed on when these changes will be taking effect.
We pride ourselves on our honest open communication and the strong relationships we build with our rental providers and renters alike.
If you are unhappy with the level of service you are receiving from your current Property Manager, have a chat to Rachel or Liz. It may be time for a change. If you would like a confidential chat, please contact us (03) 9818 4499.
Property Purchases
Although supply has been very low, we have continued to deliver great results for our clients. Here are a few below:
Home Buyer- Kew
This was an off market purchase for a client that was looking at an investment property that could be used by their elderly parents in future. In order to gain access to these properties and to negotiate a good outcome it is crucial to have good relationships with the agents that were handling this sale. We were provided exclusivity in the negotiations which enabled us to work seamlessly with the agency, vendor and our client to achieve a great result.
Home Buyer- Blackburn
A crowd packed the court for this Auction. A very mild day, with coffee cart supplying the caffeine to punters all round. Buyers Advocate kicked the proceedings off with an opening bid of $1m. Bidding progressed back and forth with 4 others involved until the hammer was about to fall to Buyers Advocate at $1,260,000 when new bidding from a late arrival progressed. Back and forth in battle, to $1,291,000 in minimal bids, it was then that Buyers Advocate slammed the other buyer with a $9000 bid to $1.3m securing the keys for our client. A great result for our clients.
Home Buyer- Kew
Bought this gem in Kew for clients that were enjoying a well deserved holiday in Italy. They were able to celebrate while away as we completed all the due diligence for them and ensured we got a great result well below their budget. We were able to put many of our auction techniques to the test on a cold rainy day to make certain our clients received a successful outcome. Our clients were rapt!
Tip Of The Month:
How to win the psychology battle at auction
Winning the psychology battle at a property auction involves a combination of preparation, strategy, and effective decision-making. Here are some tips:
1. Research: Gather information about the property, its market value, and any potential issues. Understand the local property market to set a realistic budget.
2. Set a Limit: Determine your maximum bid and stick to it. Don’t get caught up in the heat of the moment; be disciplined.
3. Attend Other Auctions: Attend other auctions to observe the process and get a feel for the psychology involved. This will help you become more comfortable with the environment.
4. Dress Confidently: Dress the part to exude confidence. This can give you a psychological edge over other bidders.
5. Arrive Early: Arriving early can help you get a good seat and assess the competition. It also shows your commitment to the property.
6. Use Psychological Tactics:
– Maintain eye contact with other bidders to convey confidence.
– Bid confidently and clearly to assert your presence.
– Avoid showing hesitation or nervousness.
7. Control Your Emotions: Stay composed and keep your emotions in check. Don’t react emotionally to other bids.
8. Consider Bid Increments: Strategically choose your bid increments. Smaller increments may slow down other bidders, while larger ones can assert dominance.
9. Psychological Timing: Place bids at strategic moments, such as right after a competitor bids, to make them think twice.
10. Engage an Agent: Consider hiring a buyer’s agent with auction experience. They can provide expert advice and bidding on your behalf, reducing emotional involvement.
11. Practice Patience: Sometimes, waiting until the last moment to place a bid can catch others off guard.
12. Be Prepared to Walk Away: If the bidding surpasses your limit, don’t be afraid to walk away. It’s better to miss out than to overextend financially.
Remember that property auctions can be highly competitive, and success isn’t guaranteed. Be prepared for different scenarios and adjust your strategy accordingly.
If you need help please call us for a complementary consultation.
