Although interest rates are rising, property prices are continuing to increase. Two of the key factors are the low level of supply and migration both overseas and interstate as people move back to Melbourne.
This is being assisted by government policy to attract international migration to our state. Melbourne will also be assisted by moving back up to 3rd in the world rankings for the most liveable cities as judged by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Only Vienna and Copenhagen are higher.
It is also worth noting that the gap in Sydney and Melbourne in housing costs have increased over the last couple of years which will also place pressure on Sydneysiders to move to Melbourne if they are looking for cheaper housing.
Whether they buy or rent, Melburnians are, on average, spending less on housing than Sydneysiders, enough to entice anyone struggling with Sydney’s seemingly impossible housing market.
And while vacancy rates in Melbourne are the country’s lowest – at 0.8% – its median rent, at $543, is still $180 cheaper than Sydney’s. Only Adelaide has cheaper median rent than Melbourne, which makes the Victorian capital a very tempting proposition for young people or low-income families.
The difference in median house value is also stark. In May, Melbourne’s median house value was 29.6% below Sydney’s, a dollar equivalent of roughly $382,500. The percentage of household income spent on rent was also much higher in Sydney than in Melbourne, 31.7% compared with 26%. The dwelling value to household income ratio tells a similar story, with Sydney’s ratio coming in at 8.8 compared with Melbourne’s 7.1.
So the Melbourne property market is once again generating interest as a market that is likely to grow.
Not all areas are equal so remember to stay informed, conduct thorough research, and work with trusted professionals to ensure your property endeavors align with your long-term objectives.
In this months newsletter we give some insights into the current market, provide a rental update and some examples of recent purchases. Our tip of the month is very topical in terms of how Artificial Intelligence can help buyers.
We hope you have a great month and keep warm.
Insights
Source: Corelogic June 2023
CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, noted the positive trend is a symptom of persistently low levels of available housing supply running up against rising housing demand. “Advertised listings trended lower through May with roughly 1,800 fewer capital city homes advertised for sale relative to the end of April. Inventory levels are -15.3% lower than they were at the same time last year and -24.4% below the previous five-year average for this time of year,” he said. “With such a short supply of available housing stock, buyers are becoming more competitive and there’s an element of FOMO creeping into the market. Amid increased competition, auction clearance rates have trended higher, holding at 70% or above over the past three weeks. For private treaty sales, homes are selling faster and with less vendor discounting.”
Each month the CoreLogic Research team puts together a Housing Chart Pack, with all the latest stats, facts and figures on the residential property market, such as the combined value of residential real estate, sales volumes, and the trend in new listings.
Here are this month’s highlights*:
- National home values rose 2.3% in the three months to May. Quarterly growth has accelerated from 1.0% in the previous month.
- The combined capital cities dwelling market value rose 1.4% in May, following a 0.7% lift in April. Monthly increases across the combined capitals surpassed a 0.5% lift in the combined regional market over the month.
- The growth trajectory for housing across the combined capitals accelerated through May, though has eased slightly through the first week of June.
- The high end of the Sydney housing market continues to lead capital growth, up 5.6% for the three months to May.
- CoreLogic estimates there were 38,860 sales in May nationally. Volumes are trending closer to a historic monthly five-year average of around 40,000. However, sales volumes remain -21.5% lower year-on-year.
- The amount of time it takes to sell property is trending lower. Median days on market nationally is down to 33 in the three months to April. Capital city homes are selling in a median of 29 days, down from 33 days in the three months to February 2023.
- At the median level, vendors are now offering less of a discount on their property across the combined capital cities market. The median vendor discount across the combined capital cities has eased from -4.3% in the three months to October 2022, to -3.8% in the three months to May 2023.
- In the four weeks to 4 June 2023, the volume of new listings totalled 30,583 nationally. New listings have seen a seasonal descent in recent weeks, and remain -16.2% below the previous five-year average.
- Total listings are still markedly lower than the previous five-year average due to the relatively low volume of new selling decisions, against a normalising in sales volumes.
- The combined capital cities clearance rate rose strongly through the month, averaging 70.5% in the four weeks ending 28 May 2023. This is up from an average final clearance rate of 60.6% in the same period of 2022.
- Growth in rent values slowed to 9.9% in the 12 months to May. Growth in rents has slowed across smaller capital cities and regional Australia, while remaining strong in the larger capital cities.
- Gross rent yields came down over the month to 3.88%, the first monthly decline in national rent yields since January 2022. The decline in gross rent yields came amid capital growth outpacing rent value growth over the month.
- New housing finance secured totaled $23.3 billion in April, posting a monthly fall of -2.9%. The largest monthly fall in housing finance was across the owner occupier, non-first home buyer segment (-4.4%), followed by a -2.1% drop in first home buyer borrowing and a -0.9% decline in the investor segment.
Property Management Update
Growth in rent values slowed to 9.9% in the 12 months to May. Growth in rents has slowed across smaller capital cities and regional Australia, while remaining strong in the larger capital cities.
Gross rent yields came down over the month to 3.88%, the first monthly decline in national rent yields since January 2022. The decline in gross rent yields came amid capital growth outpacing rent value growth over the month.
PROPERTY MANAGEMENT TIP FOR RESIDENTIAL RENTAL PROVIDERS & RENTERS
Winter has finally set in and it is bitterly cold here in Melbourne. As our rental properties are enrolled with Detector Inspector, this guarantees all heating is working for our renters so they stay warm!
We are currently seeing a lot of news stories around the rental crisis in Australia. Here is a little insight.
At a national level, vacancy rates are currently 1.42%. Though a small improvement from the historical low of 1.31% in March, it continues to be extremely tough for renters, especially those in capital cities.
While vacancy rates in regional areas have increased by 0.35ppt in the past 12 months, capital cities have experienced a decline of 0.4ppt. This meaning that competition for available rentals is worsening.
Demand for rentals in our capital cities has grown strongly over the past two years. The number of potential renters per listing has increased by 40% since May 2021.
Our portfolio is seeing our renters staying put with many of them agreeing to sign further fixed term agreements, wanting that little bit of extra security.
Melbourne’s rental crisis is not only affecting those looking for a property to rent, but also effecting those trying to rent a room (shared accommodation). We have had a number of requests from existing renters for permission for an additional person to move in.
If you are unhappy with the level of service you are receiving from your current Property Manager, have a chat to Rachel or Liz. It may be time for a change. If you would like a confidential chat, please contact us (03) 9818 4499.
Property Purchases
Although supply has been very low, we have continued to deliver great results for our clients. Here are a couple below:
Home Buyer- Preston 1 Bedroom Apartment
A cosy one bedroom apartment perched on the first floor of a block of a total of 4 apartments, all at the rear of an established home. Something Buyers Advocate Pty Ltd hadn’t seen before. Scarcity value maximised for a very quirky home. Through an expressions of interest campaign, we made our offer to purchase well before the deadline, catching the other buying parties “on the hop”, with a deadline on the offer until withdrawal, also, we bought the home with no buying competition. Another happy client.
Investor – Camberwell 3 bedroom villa
This property had a number of unique features that provided good scarcity value. Firstly it had its own street address and street access (ie no common driveway). While there is 330 m2 on title there is a further 150 sqm in front of the property that may be possible to obtain on a 99 year lease. This would give a total land size of approximately 480 sqm. This is significant particularly when you consider that land value in this area is around $3,000 a sqm. Bought at auction after taking control early in proceedings and stopping other bidders from getting any rhythm. This enabled us to secure this property for a great price.
Tip Of The Month:
How AI can assist buyers
AI can assist property buyers in various ways, providing valuable information, analysis, and convenience throughout the buying process. Here are some ways AI can support property buyers:
1. Property Search and Recommendations: AI-powered platforms can analyze vast amounts of real estate data, including property listings, market trends, and historical data. By understanding the buyer’s preferences, AI algorithms can suggest relevant properties that match their criteria, saving time and effort in the search process.
2. Property Valuation and Market Analysis: AI tools can provide automated property valuation estimates based on various factors such as location, property size, historical sales data, and market trends. This helps buyers assess the fair market value of a property and make informed decisions.
3. Virtual Property Tours: AI-driven virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) technologies enable immersive virtual property tours. Buyers can explore properties remotely, view 360-degree virtual tours, and get a realistic feel for the space without physically visiting the property. This is particularly useful for long-distance buyers or when physical visits are challenging.
4. Natural Language Processing (NLP) for Property Queries: AI-powered chatbots or voice assistants equipped with NLP capabilities can answer buyer inquiries, provide property information, and assist with common queries. Buyers can interact with these AI systems in a conversational manner, obtaining quick responses and guidance.
5. Real-Time Market Updates: AI algorithms can monitor real estate market trends, including price fluctuations, inventory levels, and neighborhood developments. Buyers can receive personalized notifications and updates on properties of interest, helping them stay informed about market conditions and make timely decisions.
6. Financial Analysis and Mortgage Assistance: AI tools can help buyers assess their financial capacity, calculate mortgage affordability, and compare loan options. By analyzing financial data and mortgage rates, AI algorithms can provide personalized recommendations and assist buyers in securing suitable financing.
7. Contract Analysis and Due Diligence: AI-powered systems can assist with contract analysis, highlighting important terms, conditions, and potential risks. They can flag discrepancies or anomalies, helping buyers ensure a thorough review of legal documents and supporting due diligence.
It’s important to note that while AI can provide valuable insights and streamline certain aspects of the property buying process, human expertise and judgment are still crucial. Real estate professionals, such as buyers advocates or real estate agents, can combine their experience and knowledge with AI tools to offer personalized guidance and negotiate on behalf of the buyer effectively.
