2023 could be a great ride
While December 2022 marked the end of a tumultuous period in the world of property, 2023 looks to be one of stabilisation and growth in key suburbs and buyer segments.
Now that people have wrapped their head around rising costs and interest rates you can expect more people to enter the market. This will be a combination of people that have sat on sidelines for 2 years and the influx migration into Melbourne from regional locations, interstate and overseas.
Inflation has already peaked in other parts of the world such as the US and you can expect Australia to follow suit. The general consensus is that there may only be 1 or 2 more rate rises before the RBA hit the pause button with some economists even expecting a rate cut before the end of the year. The only caveat to this will be the impact China has coming out of lockdown on global demand and in particular Australia.
Supply will also be limited for the 1st 6 months of the year as there are still a record number of fixed loans in place that will not be touched until they move to higher interest rates. So, we can expect an imbalance to occur between supply and demand in the short term which is likely to put positive pressure on the market.
Rents are also heading up at an extraordinary pace in Melbourne and have much further to go if you take what has happened in other states. This is likely to appeal to the investor market who are likely to look closely at the market in 2023!
In this month’s newsletter we are going to focus on whether low listings are likely to be persist in 2023, Corelogic insights for the month of December, Property Management Update, recent property purchases and tip of the month on agency buyer intelligence.
We hope everyone has a great start to the year!
Will low listings persist into 2023?
Source: Corelogic January 2023
Normally at this time of the year the number of fresh listings is moving through a dramatic seasonal upswing, however early indicators suggest the flow of new listings are starting relatively softly.
After a lackluster listings season through spring and early summer last year, vendors still seem to be reluctant to test the housing market at the start of 2023. The flow of new listings over the past four weeks was 25.9% below the previous five-year average and 20.3% lower than the same period a year ago.
Total advertised supply was tracking well below average levels through the final quarter of 2022 and has started the year with the number of properties listed for sale 31.5% below the previous five-year average and 2.9% lower than at the same time last year.
Will we see a seasonal ramp up in fresh listings?
New listings normally increase significantly in late January through to late March, with a second wind in the weeks leading up to Easter. Based on the pre-COVID decade average, ‘week eleven’, roughly mid-March, has typically represented the seasonal peak in the flow of new listings activity nationally.
Early indicators are pointing to a continuation in the relatively mild flow of new listings to the market, at least over the coming weeks. Pre-listing activity by real estate agents across CoreLogic’s RP Data platform is -15.3% lower over the first 22 days of the month compared with the same period a year ago, suggesting vendors remain wary of listing their property while market conditions tend to favour the buyer.
While it’s too early in the year to assess the likelihood of a pre-Easter bump in listings, ‘week 11’ will be an important test for the market. Arguably there will be some pent-up supply that has built up through the second half of 2022 from prospective vendors who have been holding off selling until market conditions improve.
A ramp up in new listings at a time when buyer activity is likely to remain below average could see total advertised supply levels rise, providing more choice for those buyers who are active, and potentially creating some additional downwards pressure on housing prices.
Change in new and total listings on realestate.com.au
Source: Corelogic January 2023
After the monthly rate of decline moderated between September and November, housing markets finished the year on a weaker note, with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index falling -1.1% in December, taking values -5.3% lower over the 2022 calendar year.
Each Month the CoreLogic Research team puts together a Housing Chart Pack, with all the latest stats, facts and figures on the residential property market, such as the combined values of residential real estate, sales volumes, and the trend in new listing.
Here are December’s monthly highlights:
– The combined value of residential real estate in Australia fell to $9.3 trillion at the end of December, from $9.4 trillion in the previous month.
– Dwelling values in Australia are -5.3% lower over the past 12 months, marking the largest calendar year decline in home values since 2008.
– December saw national home values decline -1.1%, which was steeper than the -1.0% fall in November, but still below the peak monthly decline (-1.6%) recorded in August.
– The highest annual growth rate in dwelling values among the regional and capital city dwelling markets was across Regional SA, at 17.1%. The lowest change in values was across Sydney, where home values declined -12.1% in the past year.
– Sales volumes continue to trend lower as buyer demand slows. CoreLogic estimates that in the 12 months to December, there were 514,342 sales nationally, down -17.0% compared to the previous year. While down compared to last year’s volumes, sales estimates are still 6.3% above the decade average annual sales volume.
– At the national level, properties are taking longer to sell. In the three months to December, the median days on market was 34, up from a low of 20 days in the three months to November 2021.
– Similarly, vendor discounting has also expanded from -2.9% in the three months to November 2021. In the three months to December 2022, the median vendor discount at the national level was -4.3%.
– In the four weeks to 8 January 2023, the volume of new listings totalled 13,936 nationally. The new listings trend is moving through a seasonal low, and is also -22.1% lower than the previous five-year average.
– At the national level, there were 122,062 listings observed over the four weeks to 8 January, 2023. Total listings are moving through a seasonal low, but the volume is also lower than in previous years.
– The combined capital cities clearance rate shifted slightly lower over the last four weeks of auction activity in 2022. The clearance rate averaged 55.1% in the four weeks to 18 December, 2022, down from 65% at the end of 2021.
– Annual growth in rent values has re-accelerated. Annual growth in Australian rent values was 10.2% in the 12 months to December, a new record high. This has partially been driven by growth in unit rents across Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, where rents have increased around 14-16% annually.
– Through December, Australian gross rent yields rose to 3.78%, up from a low of 3.21% in January 2022. Over the 2022 calendar year, gross rent yields across the capital cities rose fastest across Sydney, up 72 basis points.
CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, said this has been a year of contrasts, with housing values mostly rising through the first four months of the year, but falling sharply as the RBA commenced the fastest rate tightening cycle on record.
“Our daily index series saw national home values peak on May 7, shortly after the cash rate moved off emergency lows. Since then, CoreLogic’s national index has fallen -8.2%, following a dramatic 28.9% rise in values through the upswing.”
Property Management Update
What does the start of 2023 look like for the rental market?
Australia’s Rental Crisis
Let’s be realistic, housing is something that everyone needs, yet Australia is struggling to see a roof over many of their residents heads. Lack of availability along with the lack of affordability are contributing factors in this crisis.
Vacancy rates are at record lows and rents are climbing at a rapid rate and quite simply, there are not enough houses to go around.
Some key factors contributing to this crisis are that property investors are selling due to the high property prices we saw last year and changes in renter legislation, making it harder and more expensive to be a residential rental provider. 19% of investors in the sentiment survey, which attracted responses from 1618 investors, say they are considering selling in the next 12 months. This is only adding to the crisis.
Key Stats (as reported by realestate.com)
Australian population 25,422,788 (Census 2021)
- Available dwellings 10,852,208
- Private rental dwellings 2,478,000 (PIPA)_
- Percentage of households renting 30.6%
- Unoccupied private dwellings on Census night 1,043,776 (10.2%)
- Average number of people per household 2.5 (down from 2.6 in 2016)
- National vacancy rate September 1.1% (Corelogic)
Our Property Management team have seen what the above is doing to the Melbourne rental market. Properties are being advertised at increased rental amounts inline with the current market values and we are seeing unprecedented enquiry levels not to mention extremely high numbers of people attending each open home. This is such a drastic change to what we have been going through in the last couple of years.
Property Management Tip for Residential Rental Providers
Landlord Insurance is something that we highly recommend every landlord / RRP have in place. We recommend the following insurance providers. If you do not have this cover, please reach out to one of the below providers and arrange this immediately:-
- EBM RENT COVER – 1800 661 662
- TERRI SCHEER INSURANCE – 1800 804 016
- PROPERTY INSURANCE PLUS – 1300 307 072
Property Management Tip for Renters
When applying for a property, ensure that your application is complete and that when possible you have advised your references to expect contact (including rental references & employment references). Try to put your application in as soon as you have finished viewing the property as the processing / checking of your application starts the minute you submit it.
Total rental listings
The total number of properties advertised for rent on realestate.com.au alone fell by 8% month-on-month in September 2022 to be 20.5% lower year-on-year. Rental listing volumes were the lowest they’ve been since mid-2003 and were 32.5% below their decade average.
If you are unhappy with the level of service you are receiving from your current Property Manager, have a chat to Rachel or Liz. It may be time for a change. If you would like a confidential chat, please contact us (03) 9818 4499.
As market conditions ease, we continue to deliver great results for our clients. Here are a few below:
Home Purchase – Caulfield North
We secured this beautiful 3 bedroom home on 660 sqm of land in a great pocket of Caulfield North in early January when the market was still largely celebrating Christmas. This enabled us to privately negotiate without the normal competition for these homes. This was purchased at a price that was well below the median for this style of accommodation in this location which was a great outcome.
1st Home Buyer – South Yarra
We secured this great 2 bedroom apartment in South Yarra for a first home buyer. Boasting a generous open plan living zone with room to spread out in and floor to ceiling windows opening onto a balcony with Eastern views. Overlooked by a sleek stone kitchen with gas cooking, dish drawer and terrific storage finished with a grey palette and mirrored splashbacks. All for under $500,000. A great Result!
Tip Of The Month:
Be aware of the information you provide
Even wondered what happens when you provide your details at an open for inspection? Well that information is fed into the agents database. Once you have been entered into the database you generally only have to provide your mobile number and your details appear. This seems innocent enough except this information is invaluable to the agency who build a profile of every buyer and the properties you inspect and compete for. This is important as they see what type of property and areas you are interested in and more importantly the price point you are considering.
A good agency will also have someone to record whether you bid or not at an auction and whether you have previously made an offer on a property. So this allows them to build a pretty good profile which can then be fed to the vendor when they are discussing the capacity of their buyers and what funds they believe you have to spend. This is regardless of whether the property is worth less than others you have competed on.
So if you want to control what is being said to the vendor don’t be afraid to provide a bit more detail at the open. For example when you are asked what you think, highlight the negatives and downplay the price point. Don’t let the sales agent manage you, rather you need to take control and be aware that you may be compromised from the outset of a negotiation based purely on what they hold on their database about you. If you want to remove yourself from the equation, consider employing the services of a Buyers Advocate who can keep the anonymity and shift the balance of power your way.